MSIM4101 - 決策分析
|先修單元:||MSIM 3101 Management Science and AMS 1303 Probability and Statistics|
Managers constantly make decisions. Rarely are they lucky enough to have "full information," thus decision making under uncertainty is the norm. This course teaches a range of quantitative methods for making practical decisions with emphasis on both managerial and systems issues. The methods covered include Bayesian networks, influence diagrams, multi criteria decision analysis, and queuing theory. Some deterministic nonlinear optimization methods will also be covered. The students are required to develop a decision support system (DSS) incorporating one or more models taught throughout the course. In addition, the course examines common biases in decision making.
Upon completion of this module, students should be able to:
- improve decision making by developing probabilistic reasoning skills;
- incorporate risk preferences into decision models;
- analyse and solve decision problems;
- employ sensitivity analysis to assess model robustness; and
- analyse the impact of uncertainty on system efficiency.