{"id":15349,"date":"2015-11-14T00:00:11","date_gmt":"2015-11-13T16:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.hsu.edu.hk\/?p=15349"},"modified":"2024-01-16T11:56:17","modified_gmt":"2024-01-16T03:56:17","slug":"father-of-z-score-predicts-timing-of-market-burst-at-hsmc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hsu.edu.hk\/hk\/father-of-z-score-predicts-timing-of-market-burst-at-hsmc\/","title":{"rendered":"Z-Score\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u4e4b\u7236\u5c0d\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u6ce1\u6cab\u7206\u7834\u4e4b\u9810\u6e2c"},"content":{"rendered":"
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2015\u5e7411\u670814\u65e5<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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\u6052\u751f\u7ba1\u7406\u5b78\u9662\u4f01\u7ba1\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u5fc3\u53ca\u5546\u5b78\u9662\u65bc<\/span>11<\/span>\u6708<\/span>14<\/span>\u65e5\u4e3b\u8fa6\u300c\u8ca1\u7d93\u5e02\u5834\u5c55\u671b\ufe30\u662f\u5426\u6ce1\u6cab\u5e74\u4ee3\uff1f\u300d\u91d1\u878d\u7814\u8a0e\u6703\uff0c\u4e26\u7531\u7279\u8a31\u91d1\u878d\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u5354\u6703<\/span>(CFA Institute)<\/span>\u5354\u8fa6\uff0c\u9080\u5f97\u8457\u540d\u7d10\u7d04\u5927\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u53ca<\/span>Altman Z Score\u00a0<\/span>\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u4e4b\u7236<\/span>Dr Edward Altman<\/span>\u53ca\u7acb\u6cd5\u6703\u8b70\u54e1\u53ca\u9ad8\u5049\u7d33\u5f8b\u5e2b\u884c\u9ad8\u7d1a\u7a05\u52d9\u9867\u554f\u6881\u7e7c\u660c\u5148\u751f\uff0c\u5c31\u4e3b\u984c\u5206\u4eab\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u5bf6\u8cb4\u610f\u898b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u7814\u8a0e\u6703\u5148\u7531\u6052\u7ba1\u4f01\u7ba1\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7e3d\u76e3\u90ed\u7f8e\u5fb7\u5973\u58eb\u7c21\u4ecb\u4f01\u7ba1\u6d3b\u52d5\u91cd\u9ede\u53ca\u4ecb\u7d39\u7814\u8a0e\u6703\u5609\u8cd3\uff0c\u90ed\u5973\u58eb\u7a31\uff1a\u300c\u6052\u7ba1\u4f01\u7ba1\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u5fc3\u70ba\u4f01\u696d\u53ca\u500b\u4eba\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f01\u696d\u884c\u653f\u57f9\u8a13\u3001\u7ba1\u7406\u8aee\u8a62\u548c\u5e02\u5834\u8abf\u67e5\u7b49\u670d\u52d9\uff0c\u4e26\u8209\u8fa6\u5404\u985e\u5c08\u696d\u7814\u8a0e\u6703\uff0c\u9080\u8acb\u696d\u754c\u7ff9\u695a\u4e3b\u8b1b\u3002\u300d\u6052\u7ba1\u5546\u5b78\u9662\u9662\u9577\u8607\u5049\u6587\u6559\u6388\u5728\u6703\u4e0a\u81f4\u6b61\u8fce\u8fad\uff0c\u5206\u4eab\u4ed6\u5c0d\u300c\u5e02\u5834\u6ce1\u6cab\u300d\u7684\u898b\u89e3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6881\u7e7c\u660c\u8b70\u54e1\u63a2\u8a0e\u4e86\u9999\u6e2f\u623f\u5730\u7522\u5e02\u5834\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u4ea4\u4ee3\u8fd1\u671f\u623f\u5730\u7522\u76f8\u95dc\u7d71\u8a08\u53ca\u4ea4\u6613\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u8a55\u4f30\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u653f\u7b56\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u79c1\u4eba\u53ca\u516c\u5171\u623f\u5c4b\u4f9b\u61c9\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u958b\u767c\u90ca\u91ce\u516c\u5712\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u61c9\u8a72\u91cd\u65b0\u5be9\u8996\u300c\u4e01\u5c4b\u300d\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5176\u4ed6\u89e3\u6c7a\u623f\u5c4b\u4f9b\u61c9\u554f\u984c\u7684\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u4e26\u91dd\u5c0d\u9999\u6e2f\u593e\u5fc3\u968e\u5c64\u5236\u5b9a\u623f\u5c4b\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u300d<\/span><\/p>\n

Dr Edward Altman<\/span>\u7c21\u4ecb\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4e26\u5e36\u51fa\u5169\u500b\u554f\u984c\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u6ce1\u6cab\uff1f\u6ce1\u6cab\u7206\u7834\u5f8c\u6709\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\uff1f\u4ed6\u8a73\u8ff0<\/span>2008<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u5982\u4f55\u4ee4\u74b0\u7403\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u50b5\u5238\u548c\u80a1\u7968\u53cd\u61c9\u66f4\u52a0\u654f\u611f\uff0c\u4e26\u6307\u51fa\u73fe\u6642\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u5f62\u6210\u6ce1\u6cab\u3002<\/span>Dr Altman<\/span>\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u9664\u975e\u51fa\u73fe\u91cd\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u5f15\u81f4\u4fe1\u8cb8\u5371\u6a5f\u548c\u5168\u7403\u5b89\u5168\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e0d\u6703\u7834\u88c2\u300d\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\uff0c\u4ed6\u5206\u4eab\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5e74\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u662f\u6b21\u7814\u8a0e\u6703\u70ba\u4f01\u7ba1\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8209\u8fa6\u4e4b\u300c\u6052\u7ba1\u91d1\u878d\u6708\u300d\u7684\u91cd\u9ede\u9805\u76ee\uff0c\u4e26\u5c07\u65bc<\/span>11<\/span>\u6708<\/span>30<\/span>\u65e5\u8209\u884c\u300c\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u5168\u7403\u8da8\u52e2\u300d\u7814\u8a0e\u6703\uff0c\u9080\u5f97\u4f86\u81ea\u99ac\u4f86\u897f\u4e9e\u7684\u5609\u8cd3\u4e3b\u8b1b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6709\u95dc\u6d3b\u52d5\u8a73\u60c5\uff0c\u8acb\u700f\u89bd\u00a0http:\/\/www.hsu.edu.hk\/index.php\/market-outlook-is-it-a-bubble-conference<\/a>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u9644\u52a0\u6587\u4ef6 :<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n
1 )\u00a0Is It a Bubble.pdf<\/a>
\n2 )\u00a0Outlook of HK property market.pdf<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\"\u6052\u751f\u7ba1\u7406\u5b78\u9662\u6821\u9577\u4f55\u9806\u6587\u6559\u6388\ufe5d\u5de6\u4e94\ufe5e\u3001\u8b1b\u8005Dr<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Dr Edward Altman\u5206\u4eab\u53ca\u95e1\u91cb\u300c\u74b0\u7403\u4fe1\u8cb8\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u524d\u666f\u300d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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\"\u6052\u7ba1\u5546\u5b78\u9662\u9662\u9577\u8607\u5049\u6587\u6559\u6388\u5728\u6703\u4e0a\u81f4\u6b61\u8fce\u8fad\uff0c\u4e26\u5206\u4eab\u4f55\u8b02<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Altman\u53ca\u7acb\u6cd5\u6703\u8b70\u54e1\u53ca\u9ad8\u5049\u7d33\u5f8b\u5e2b\u884c\u9ad8\u7d1a\u7a05\u52d9\u9867\u554f\u6881\u7e7c\u660c\u5148\u751f\uff0c\u5c31\u4e3b\u984c\u5206\u4eab\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u5bf6\u8cb4\u610f\u898b\u3002 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Altman\u7c21\u4ecb\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4e26\u5e36\u51fa\u5169\u500b\u554f\u984c\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u6ce1\u6cab\uff1f\u6ce1\u6cab\u7206\u7834\u5f8c\u6709\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\uff1f\u4ed6\u8a73\u8ff02008\u5e74\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u5982\u4f55\u4ee4\u74b0\u7403\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u50b5\u5238\u548c\u80a1\u7968\u53cd\u61c9\u66f4\u52a0\u654f\u611f\uff0c\u4e26\u6307\u51fa\u73fe\u6642\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u5f62\u6210\u6ce1\u6cab\u3002Dr Altman\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u9664\u975e\u51fa\u73fe\u91cd\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u5f15\u81f4\u4fe1\u8cb8\u5371\u6a5f\u548c\u5168\u7403\u5b89\u5168\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e0d\u6703\u7834\u88c2\u300d\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\uff0c\u4ed6\u5206\u4eab\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5e74\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u3002 \u662f\u6b21\u7814\u8a0e\u6703\u70ba\u4f01\u7ba1\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8209\u8fa6\u4e4b\u300c\u6052\u7ba1\u91d1\u878d\u6708\u300d\u7684\u91cd\u9ede\u9805\u76ee\uff0c\u4e26\u5c07\u65bc11\u670830\u65e5\u8209\u884c\u300c\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u5168\u7403\u8da8\u52e2\u300d\u7814\u8a0e\u6703\uff0c\u9080\u5f97\u4f86\u81ea\u99ac\u4f86\u897f\u4e9e\u7684\u5609\u8cd3\u4e3b\u8b1b\u3002   \u6709\u95dc\u6d3b\u52d5\u8a73\u60c5\uff0c\u8acb\u700f\u89bd\u00a0http:\/\/www.hsu.edu.hk\/index.php\/market-outlook-is-it-a-bubble-conference\u3002 \u9644\u52a0\u6587\u4ef6 : 1 )\u00a0Is It a Bubble.pdf 2 )\u00a0Outlook of HK property market.pdf \u6052\u751f\u7ba1\u7406\u5b78\u9662\u6821\u9577\u4f55\u9806\u6587\u6559\u6388\ufe5d\u5de6\u4e94\ufe5e\u3001\u8b1b\u8005Dr Edward Atlman\ufe5d\u53f3\u4e94\ufe5e\u53ca\u6881\u7e7c\u660c\u8b70\u54e1\ufe5d\u53f3\u516d\ufe5e\u8207\u5354\u8fa6\u53ca\u652f\u6301\u55ae\u4f4d\u4ee3\u8868\u5408\u7167 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